Even at the best of times, elections in Maharashtra are not easy to call. But now, given the extremely complex situation — with six parties in the fray, including competing factions of two major regional players — it has become a nightmare for political analysts and psephologists to stick their neck out and predict which way the election is headed. The recent Haryana experience, where the BJP pulled off a win almost no one had expected, adds to the dilemma.
At one stage, it appeared that the ground situation was against the ruling coalition — Mahayuti, comprising the BJP and two breakaway regional parties, the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) under Ajit Pawar. The opposing combo — the Congress, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) — has struck a chord with its allegations against the Mahayuti, from crony capitalism involving a certain industrialist, to the shift of projects from Maharashtra to Gujarat, and its impact on local jobs, as well as rising prices.
There also appear to be cracks in the ruling alliance over the CM face, the BJP’s ‘batenge toh katenge’ slogan, and Ajit Pawar’s flip-flop on a 2019 NCP-BJP meeting and industrialist Gautam Adani’s involvement in it. On the governance front as well, the Mahayuti government headed by Eknath Shinde has not acquitted itself very well. The public reaction to the rallies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah has been insipid — notwithstanding the odd vociferous sloganeering doing the rounds on social media.
In the last leg of the campaign, however, the Mahayuti has unleashed a massive media blitz across traditional media, as well as social media, with influencers thrown in for good measure. Alongside, there is a flurry of freebies, for every section of the voter, as if the government has completely thrown open the purse strings.
Offering a clearer picture on the outcome could still have been possible if the election were a direct confrontation between the ruling Mahayuti and the Opposition Maha Vikas Agadi (MVA) — based on the ground situation and indications from the antics and behaviour of different players. However, there are several miscellaneous factors at play — the presence of many smaller parties, and independents and rebels — which throw a long shadow on any poll calculations.
The Miscellaneous Factors
Among the smaller players in the fray, there’s Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which could end up playing a similar role in Maharashtra as it did in Bihar or, more recently, in Uttar Pradesh, taking away some of the votes that would otherwise have gone to the BJP’s opponents. Besides, Owaisi’s presence and sharp campaigns always lead to and help the BJP make its narrative around religion sharper. Technically, no one can find fault with Owaisi for entering the fray, but the fact that his presence helps the BJP is something that cannot be denied.
Then there’s the other Thackeray — Raj — and his Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), as well as Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA), both of which add an element of suspense. While no proper assessment can be made at this stage of their exact vote-catching power, it can be reasonably assumed that any votes they snatch are likely to damage the MVA more than the Mahayuti. It is perhaps in this context that some Opposition leaders suspect that the smaller parties could be getting funding from the ruling dispensation. But this is a charge without any substantial proof and hence can be discounted at this stage.
If smaller parties and independents snatch some 30 seats, then the ‘Maharashtra Political League’ will start in earnest after 3 pm on November 23, when the results and trends would have firmed up, and any of these could emerge as kingmakers.
The role of the MNS is being watched particularly closely, as it is in contest in some 35 seats and could make a difference in Mumbai and surrounding areas. It is no surprise as to which side Raj Thackeray is on, notwithstanding the right political noises he makes for obvious reasons. If proof were needed, it came in the form of the BJP’s initial support to his son Amit Thackeray in Mahim constituency, at the cost of coalition partner Shiv Sena, before it decided to back its ally after all. The VBA, meanwhile, is making a big play for the votes of Dalits, Muslims and other marginalised communities, and is fighting in close to 70 seats. And it can upset the calculations of the MVA candidates.
Parties like these may not win seats, but have the power to destroy the chances of another party – and this is why they are important. And it is not lost on the MVA. That’s why its confidence and pre-poll belligerence has come down a bit. Although the Opposition leaders claim a sure-shot victory, they are unsure, their doubt fuelled by their own suspicions over the fairness of the election processes.
Another key factor is Maratha activist Manoj Jarange Patil, who has lost some of his credibility because of his flip-flops but still enjoys enough clout to make or break candidates – if he gives or denies his support. On this, there is suspense as to what game he will be playing, and, for this reason, he is an unknown factor. His opposition cost the BJP and its coalition partners dear in the Lok Sabha elections. Now, Manoj Jarange Patil has once again begun sharpening his knives against the BJP, and he could make a difference in parts of Vidharbha and Western Maharashtra, according to veteran political analyst Satyajit Joshi. Whether his Maratha quota stance leads to counter polarisation of the OBCs in favour of the BJP is something that needs to be seen.
A Tough Challenge
The BJP has shown time and again that it is way ahead of its opponents when it comes to strategies and skilful use of independents and smaller parties to deny their rivals votes. Another area where the BJP becomes extremely strong is election management — with its workers’ mass contact programmes, bringing voters to the booths, as also their work at polling booths. And this time around, the army of the RSS is out in the field in full force.
On its part, the BJP is playing on the front foot with issues such as ‘Vote Jihad’ and the Wakf Board controversy — although the issue has been raised in different parts of India, it is resonating in all the election-bound states as the BJP has skilfully woven this narrative to portray the Opposition as a Muslim political formation.
“What we don’t know is how this will affect the voting, but it has become the talking point in Maharashtra,” said Joshi. Another analyst said that, before the elections were announced, it seemed as if the MVA would win easily. But the Mahayuti has managed to recover a lot of ground and is giving a tough challenge, despite internal bickering in the coalition, the analyst added.
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